Every soccer 1X2 number we published, scored against what actually happened — including the places it is measurably off.
1,268 fixtures27 Jun 2026 – 10 Oct 2026captured ~20 min before kick-offmarket 1X2
Headline
53.5%Called rightHighest-rated outcome matched the result
0.5703Brier scoreWhole-forecast error. Lower is better
0.9599Log lossPenalises confident misses. Lower is better
6.8%Margin removedStripped before the number is published
SkipOdds called right53.5%
Always taking the home side42.2%
Same 1,268 fixtures, both figures.
Soccer is a low-signal sport — the ceiling is lower than most people expect.
Any number claiming to call much past the mid-fifties across mixed competitions is worth reading twice.
Calibration
Each dot is one confidence band, sized by how many outcomes fall in it. A perfectly calibrated number sits on the dashed line; the grey stem is the miss.
Band
Outcomes
SkipOdds said
Happened
Gap (pts)
0–5%
37
3.3%
2.7%
-0.6
5–10%
124
7.7%
2.4%
-5.3
10–20%
528
15.8%
15.2%
-0.6
20–30%
1,447
25.4%
25.8%
+0.4
30–40%
587
34.4%
33.6%
-0.8
40–50%
446
44.6%
43.9%
-0.7
50–65%
383
56.7%
57.4%
+0.7
65%+
252
75.0%
78.2%
+3.2
3,804 outcomes across 1,268 fixtures.
Where it is off, stated plainly
Widest two bands: 5–10% — stated 7.7%, happened 2.4% over 124 outcomes; 65%+ — stated 75%, happened 78.2% over 252 outcomes.
Long shots come in under their stated chance; strong favourites over it — the classic favourite–long-shot pattern.
Three alternative ways of removing the margin were tested. All three flatten those tails as theory predicts.
None improved overall accuracy on the sample tested — 856 fixtures, paired t of 0.3.
The pattern is real, the obvious fix does not pay, and nothing was changed on the strength of it.
By competition
Accuracy is not one number — it is a different number in every competition.
Below: every competition with at least 25 scored fixtures in the window.
Competition
Fixtures
Called right
Brier
Major League Soccer
151
47.0%
0.6422
UEFA Nations League
104
58.7%
0.5163
EFL Championship
96
43.8%
0.6410
FA Cup
76
60.5%
0.5789
La Liga
70
54.3%
0.5540
Liga MX
66
42.4%
0.6348
Eredivisie
61
55.7%
0.5545
Saudi Pro League
57
52.6%
0.5594
Primeira Liga
54
46.3%
0.5908
UEFA Europa Conference League
52
53.8%
0.5642
Brasileirão
51
60.8%
0.5472
Premier League
50
46.0%
0.6369
Serie A
50
56.0%
0.5393
Ligue 1
46
47.8%
0.6173
UEFA Europa League
43
58.1%
0.5475
FIFA World Cup 2026
38
73.7%
0.4191
Bundesliga
37
51.4%
0.5862
Süper Lig
33
48.5%
0.5793
UEFA Champions League
31
71.0%
0.4327
DFB-Pokal
30
80.0%
0.3444
What this does not yet prove
Coverage is 34%
34%
66%
1,268 of 3,704 finished fixtures carried a closing number.
The rest were never covered by enough sources to publish one.
This describes the fixtures SkipOdds covers, not the whole calendar.
The aggregation itself is untested
SkipOdds averages the prices it collects from up to 79 sources, converts them and normalises.
Whether that is the best way to combine them is untested — against a median, against weighting each source by its own record, against discarding placeholder quotes.
It could not be answered from what was stored: individual source prices were overwritten on every refresh.
Since 14 September 2026 they are frozen alongside each closing number.
The answer will be published here whichever way it falls.
Method
Every figure is recomputed from the frozen pre-kick-off snapshot — the number as published, roughly twenty minutes before the start.
Nothing is scored from prices captured after kick-off.
Called right — share of fixtures where the highest-rated outcome matched the result.
Brier — mean squared error across all three outcomes. A number honest about a close fixture scores well even when its top pick loses; one emphatic about a coin-flip scores badly even when it wins.
Margin removed — the average overround stripped before publication.
Recomputed 2026-10-10 07:48 UTC. Past accuracy does not predict future accuracy.